Use AI for the Questions Nobody in the Room Will Ask

Episode Summary

Decision-making is where Chris Butler, then staff product operations manager at GitHub, puts the value of an LLM, and his reason is about power rather than intelligence. Teams struggle as they get larger, he says, because decision-making calcifies, and he reaches for the dominant logic idea: the people reusing the mental models that made them successful are usually higher up, which filters out variance in ideas and in ways of working until a bad outcome gets likelier. A model in that conversation has no stake in it. It is not emotionally involved, it is not part of the hierarchy and it does not care about power, so it can ask what the room will not, or give examples of other cases worth reconsidering. He is candid about the yield, putting it in February 2025 at about 80 percent not helpful, and the value in the few that come from somewhere else.

Key takeaways

  • He defines his own role in a way that explains everything after it. He calls himself a PM for the PM experience, there to understand how the product management organization works together and how its product managers build healthy tensions with engineers, designers, project managers, legal, privacy, security and responsible AI

  • His personal brand is a Dungeons and Dragons alignment and he means it as a working method. Chaotic good is how he approaches a world where teams fall into patterns or into undue certainty, and his job is to mix that up through questions, workshops and even meeting design

  • His analogy for where AI sits right now is deliberately unflattering to everyone including himself. It is the move from web to mobile, when the apps were fake lighters and slot machines and nobody had gotten to TikTok yet

  • His statement of the problem is aimed at his own side. He thinks teams that consider themselves very certain about the future are wrong, and his personal motto is that he is wrong today, he just does not know how yet

  • He borrows a framework to explain why one team’s practices do not fit another, and names its author. Kent Beck’s three-X model puts technology adoption on an S curve in three phases, explore at the bottom with cheap rapid experiments, expand at the hockey stick where everything breaks and bottlenecks appear, and extract or exploit at the top where you stop making new things and optimize

  • The diagnosis he draws from the three-X model is about mismatch rather than skill. Teams are somewhere on the curve for a given product or feature, they do not always understand where, and so they create dynamics that are not appropriate for the stage they are actually in

  • He puts optimizing on the same footing as building. The idea of optimization is also a creative act, because taking something hard and making it simple, or reducing a system’s complexity so it is more resilient and robust, is itself creative work

  • His account of why he studies decisions starts with a specific frustration rather than a theory. People wanted to do the right thing and kept getting stuck in hierarchies and power structures, so they made the safe decision rather than the one that would push things in a better direction

  • He is careful about what a good decision even means, and the correction matters for everything after it. Better or bad decisions is maybe not good terminology, he says, because it focuses on the outcome, and in an uncertain and complex world a decision will sometimes be wrong, meaning it did not have the impact you wanted; what you can improve is the process that produces it

  • The mechanism he blames for decisions getting worse as a company grows has a name and a citation. Dominant logic, from a paper he places around 1985 or 1986: people who have been successful reuse their past mental models in current situations, and those people are usually higher in the organization

  • The damage dominant logic does is specific. It filters out variance of ideas and variance of ways of doing work, and eventually produces the wrong decision, or one with a bad outcome, more often than not

  • His limit on what he would hand a model comes before any of the benefits. He would not want a system making a decision on something that is not heuristic based, because given a brand new situation he does not think a model can yet decide from new information and circumstance rather than falling back on what it was trained on

  • The reason he wants a model in the room is about position rather than capability. It is not emotionally involved, it is not part of the hierarchy, and it does not care about power inside the system, so it can ask questions or raise other cases that make people reconsider their current thinking

  • The prompts he actually uses are ordinary enough to copy, and he lists them. Here is a process I am thinking about implementing, what will be confusing about it; play out how someone would go through it and the problems they would have; what am I not thinking of; what best practices should I consider

  • He puts a number on how much of it is worth having and it is not a flattering one. About 80 percent of what comes back is not helpful and is something he had already thought of, and the value is the few things from another domain he had not considered

  • Research he was part of at a design consultancy produced two answers, and his own reframing of them years later is the useful part. Users were asked whether they understood what the system was doing and whether they liked it; looking back, he reads the liked-it group as describing work being taken off them that was not the creative part, and the did-not-like-it group as describing things about human connection and finding meaning in the work

  • The distinction gives him a test for which work moves, and he applies it to specific roles. Summarization is a real part of what an operations person, a technical program manager or an executive assistant does, it is daunting when you are trying to get into the mindset of whoever wrote the thing, and he would say that type of work will start to go away because it will be done automatically

  • What he says is left for people is not the usual list. Organizational dynamics, creativity, making exceptions, and one he offers half seriously, that humans are really good at phoning it in when appropriate, so part of the job is telling the system that something is just not worth doing right now

  • The future he describes for GitHub is translation rather than automation, and he frames it as a world he could imagine. A product manager works with an agent to turn a concept into boilerplate, a designer’s mockups in a tool like Figma update it, and then the trade-offs an engineer makes get illustrated back in a form the product manager, the designer and even the customer would understand

  • His closing ask has two halves and the second is aimed at IT, HR, legal and responsible AI. Try the tools and understand where they are not working, and then get IT, HR, legal and responsible AI to build environments where experimenting is safe, rather than publishing a page that says you cannot use this

About Chris Butler

Chris Butler was staff product operations manager at GitHub at the time of this conversation, and is now director of product operations at the same company. He describes the role as being a product manager for the product management experience: making the people who build products more effective, and watching how those product managers build healthy tensions with engineering, design, legal, privacy, security and responsible AI. Chaotic good product manager is the label he explains on this episode when the host raises it as his personal brand: a Dungeons and Dragons alignment used as a working method, aimed at the undue certainty teams fall into. Before GitHub he worked at Waze and KAYAK and at a boutique design consultancy called Philosophie, all of which he names on this episode, and he dates his turn toward product work to a Microsoft interview that asked him how he would design a washer and dryer combination for someone who is sight impaired. His interest in decision quality came out of wanting to make the right decisions and finding that hierarchies and power structures produced the safe ones instead.

 

In this episode

00:41 Welcome, and who Chris Butler is
01:17 Product manager against product operations manager
02:09 A PM for the PM experience
02:34 Understanding how the PM organization works together
02:53 Legal, privacy, security, safety, responsible AI
03:09 What is a chaotic good product manager?
03:25 An Easter egg for the Dungeons and Dragons players
04:50 Web to mobile: fake lighters before anyone got to TikTok
05:12 Certain teams are wrong. I am wrong today, I just do not know how yet
06:03 The iterative trap, and where Kent Beck comes in
06:24 The three-X model: explore, expand, extract
07:05 Teams are somewhere on the curve and do not always know where
07:45 Optimization is also a creative act
08:44 An apprenticeship with an art director, and X-Acto knives
09:16 Job offers in secure radio, and the thing he actually loved
09:36 The Microsoft interview question about a washer and dryer
10:22 Product, evangelism, and hybrid roles at Waze and KAYAK
10:36 Stuck in hierarchies, making the safe decision
11:29 Better decisions, and why outcome is the wrong test
12:26 Including uncertainty rather than shutting it down
13:11 Decision-making calcifies as teams get larger
13:44 Dominant logic, and the variance it filters out
14:07 Reconsidering the dogmas and norms of an organization
14:30 What he would not hand a model: anything not heuristic based
14:58 No stake, no hierarchy, no interest in power
15:20 Summarization, and the status reporting every org asks for
15:42 Abductive thinking, and taking a leap from evidence
16:03 An LLM taking on personas to ask the hard questions
16:23 The prompts he actually uses
16:39 About 80 percent is not helpful, and why he keeps asking
17:00 LLMs as thought partners, and AI as a provocateur
17:41 The Philosophie research with field service dispatchers
18:21 The reframing: work that is not the creative part
18:43 The human connection group, and whose job summarization is
19:03 Daunting work that will start to go away
19:15 What is left for people, and phoning it in when appropriate
19:44 The future of AI for development teams at GitHub
20:03 A world he could imagine: concept to boilerplate to trade-offs
20:32 Mockups in Figma, and the trade-offs made visible
21:23 What listeners should take away
21:34 Try them, and understand where they are not working
21:49 Make it safe to experiment, rather than publishing a ban
22:27 Close

In Chris’s words

“my personal motto is that I’m wrong today, I just don’t know how yet”

Chris Butler   (05:12)

“I think of myself as actually a PM for the PM experience”

Chris Butler   (02:09)

“the idea of optimization is also a creative act”

Chris Butler   (07:45)

“The problem is that filters out variance of ideas, variance of ways of doing work”

Chris Butler   (13:44)

“And I think I would not want a system to make a decision on something that is not heuristic based”

Chris Butler   (14:30)

“it’s not part of the hierarchy, it doesn’t care about power inside of the system”

Chris Butler   (14:58)

“about like 80% of the stuff is not helpful. It’s things I’ve already thought of”

Chris Butler   (16:39)

“how do we make it so that it’s safe for people to experiment with these things”

Chris Butler   (21:49)


 

Resources

Referenced on air

Named on air

  • Philosophie: The boutique design consultancy where he did the multi-agent research at 17:41, with field service dispatchers. It was acquired in 2019 and has traded as InfoBeans Accelerate since December 2022, so there is no current site under the name he says

  • Waze and KAYAK: The hybrid business development and product roles he describes at 10:22, which he calls a different type of product management

  • Microsoft: Where he interviewed at 09:36, and the source of the washer and dryer question, on designing one for someone who is sight impaired, that he says turned him toward product work

  • Motorola and General Dynamics: The two job offers he mentions at 09:16, in secure radio development and secure networking, at the point where he realized programming itself was not the thing he loved

  • Figma: Named at 20:32 as an example of the kind of tool where a designer’s mockups would live in the workflow he describes for GitHub

  • ChatGPT: Named at 21:49 in his bet that a lot of people are already using these tools on personal accounts, which is his argument for making internal experimentation safe

Ideas and terms discussed

  • Chaotic good product manager: His own public description of how he works, taken from the Dungeons and Dragons alignment system. The method underneath it is unsettling undue certainty through questions, workshops and meeting design

  • The three-X model: Explore, expand, extract. Kent Beck’s three phases of technology adoption on an S curve. Chris Butler uses it to explain why a practice that fits one stage may not be appropriate for another

  • Dominant logic: Reusing the mental models that made you successful when the situation is new. His explanation for why decision quality falls as an organization grows, and for why what an organization loses shows up as filtered-out variance

  • Abductive thinking: Taking a leap based on evidence, which he says a lot of product managers do, as against deduction moving back and forth between evidence and rules

  • The model with no stake: A model in a decision is not emotionally involved, is not in the hierarchy and does not care about power, so it can ask what the room will not

  • I am wrong today, I just do not know how yet: His stated personal motto, and the reason he treats certainty as the thing to design against

  • Translation across practices: The future he describes for GitHub from 20:03, and the word he uses for it at 20:59, where a trade-off an engineer makes is rendered back in terms a product manager, a designer or a customer would understand. Episode 42 is where he takes this further

 

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